One lane per thread. Events sit at their earliest public date (preprint, not journal acceptance). The NLP community noticed temporal degradation first (2021); finance supplied the motive (2023) once ChatGPT appeared to forecast returns; leakage-free model sequences and leakage benchmarks followed. The dashed line marks the arrival of from-scratch, multi-year, general-purpose sequences (ChronoBERT, February 2025). Hover for details; click to open. Dates marked ⚠ are month-approximate.
Corrections welcome — file an issue on microprediction/pitllm.